The
Synthetic Control Method is an increasingly popular approach to
quasi-experimental causal inference and policy evaluation. The method involves
the construction of a control time
series which optimally approximates the characteristics of the treated series
up to the point of the
intervention as a weighted combination of less-than-ideal, but uncontaminated
“donor pool”
units. Because the synthetic control is constructed from a set of
uncontaminated controls, the post intervention synthetic series is intended to
approximate the treated series "had the
intervention never occurred". After briefly situating the method within
causal inference and
quasi-experimental literatures, an example analysis will be conducted in R
replicating one of the foundational synthetic control studies. The talk will
then shift to spatial considerations and how recent applications of the design
have, with varying success, mitigated threats to validity such as spillover,
spatial autocorrelation, and regional heterogeneity, all of which complicate
causal inference in spatial contexts.